Export of grain

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Запись опубликована 12.06.2024

A record grain harvest is expected in Ukraine this year. The country has already surpassed the 40 million tons mark. At the same time, productivity increased significantly. Meanwhile, the increase in the volume of agricultural products on the market, according to some experts, may provoke a decline in prices.

Meanwhile, some experts carrying out export of grain crops to Poland see this as possible risks for farmers. In particular, the increase in agricultural products on the market can reduce their prices. Alexander Osin, director of the analytical department of the investment company Savements, believes that such a scenario does not threaten farmers in the medium term:

Over the past 10 years, world grain production has increased by 15%, i.e. approximately 1.5% per year. The world population is growing at about 2%. That is, the trends that are currently observed (about 1-1.5% increase in world production) are lower than population growth, not to mention the fact that there is a tendency towards an increase in per capita consumption in emerging markets. Therefore, in my opinion, there is no need to talk about an oversupply if we are talking about the medium and long term. As for the current situation, in my opinion, price growth was restrained by monetary factors, but now we are emerging from this cycle of squeezing rates and investment expectations. Monetary factors will play in favor of rising prices for raw materials; another thing is how developing countries will react to this, whether they will actively defend their positions.

Let us remember that earlier experts gave negative forecasts. In particular, according to data as of July of this year, wheat prices on world exchanges fell to their lowest level since their peak in 2008. A ton of wheat cost a third less than in the 2014-2015 season. At the same time, Ukraine plans to increase grain exports this year, since the domestic market is not able to digest the harvest, and there is no additional money to replenish stocks. As Vice-President of the Ukrainian Grain Union Alexander Korbut previously reported, this year they can harvest even more than expected, about 111 million tons of grain. It is also predicted that a grain surplus of up to 40 million tons is expected on the domestic market. Large-scale government interventions could stabilize the situation, but they are not included in the budget. At the same time, experts note that exports will become the most profitable direction for farmers. The current decline in wheat prices was explained by the expectation of a high harvest in the world, including in Ukraine, as well as record world reserves.

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